Analyst: The US and Iran have not reached an agreement, Bitcoin may fall back to $65,000

After 21 hours of negotiations, U.S. Vice President Vance stated that no agreement was reached, as Iran refused to commit to abandoning its nuclear weapons program. Trump had previously warned that if negotiations failed, he would implement "total destruction" against Iran. The Iranian conflict has shaken the cryptocurrency market for several weeks, compounded by tariff issues, causing Bitcoin to briefly drop below $70,000 earlier this month.

Before the negotiations began, crypto analysts indicated that if an agreement were reached, Bitcoin could rise to $80,000; if negotiations broke down, it might fall back to $65,000. Bulls noted that on-chain wallet data showed that the largest Bitcoin whales continued to buy during periods of intense geopolitical turmoil rather than selling. Their logic is that if the conflict escalates further and disrupts oil supply in the Persian Gulf, leading to rising oil prices, inflation, and the Federal Reserve delaying interest rate cuts, scarce assets like Bitcoin and gold tend to perform well in such contexts.

On the bearish side, gold trader and long-term Bitcoin skeptic Peter Schiff stated that as the conflict escalates, investors will flee from Bitcoin to gold. Peter Schiff predicted that Bitcoin would "collapse," claiming that gold is the only true safe-haven asset in wartime, and further suggested that insiders within the administration might be profiting from the volatility surrounding the conflict. If Trump follows through on his threat of "total destruction," both the stock market and the crypto market will almost certainly face simultaneous sell-offs.

Regarding further developments, Vance maintained a firm stance at the press conference but did not rule out the possibility of continued negotiations. The Speaker of the Iranian Parliament demanded a ceasefire in Lebanon and the unfreezing of assets before participating in formal negotiations. For Bitcoin traders, the next 72 hours hinge on two questions: Can the ceasefire agreement hold, and will Trump escalate the conflict? Currently, there are still whales buying at the current price level, indicating that at least some large investors are betting on a stabilization of the situation.