What is Monero (XMR)? A Comprehensive Guide
Key Takeaways
- Privacy-Focused Cryptocurrency: Monero (XMR) is a decentralized digital currency designed for anonymous transactions, using advanced cryptography to hide sender, recipient, and amount details, making it a go-to for users prioritizing financial privacy over transparent blockchains like Bitcoin.
- Core Mechanisms: It operates on a proof-of-work consensus with RandomX algorithm, ensuring secure, untraceable payments without relying on third parties, while supporting features like ring signatures and stealth addresses for enhanced anonymity.
- Use Cases and Advantages: Ideal for private payments, censorship-resistant transfers, and value storage in volatile markets; its key strengths include strong security against surveillance, community-driven development, and resistance to regulatory tracing, though it faces risks like potential bans in some jurisdictions.
- Market Position: As of August 20, 2025, Monero holds a market cap of around $5.84 billion, ranking #24, with a focus on real-world utility rather than hype, appealing to privacy advocates in an increasingly monitored digital economy.
What Is Monero (XMR)?
Monero (XMR) is a privacy-centric cryptocurrency that enables secure, anonymous transactions by obscuring the details of senders, recipients, and amounts through sophisticated cryptographic techniques, distinguishing it from more transparent blockchains like Bitcoin.
Imagine you’re sending money to a friend, but you don’t want the whole world peeking into your wallet— that’s Monero in a nutshell. Launched in 2014, Monero emerged from the Bytecoin fork, aiming to address the privacy shortcomings in early cryptocurrencies. Its core concept revolves around “fungibility,” meaning every XMR coin is identical and interchangeable, without a traceable history that could devalue it based on past uses. Think of it like cash in your pocket: no one knows where it came from, and that’s the point. The ecosystem includes a vibrant community of developers, miners, and users who contribute to its open-source code, wallets like the official Monero GUI, and integrations with privacy tools. Backed by a pseudonymous team, Monero has grown into a staple for those dodging surveillance, from everyday users to activists in restrictive regimes. It’s not just about hiding; it’s about empowering financial freedom in a world where data is the new gold.
Origins and Background
Monero didn’t just pop up overnight—it has roots in the broader crypto movement for privacy. Forked from Bytecoin, which itself was based on CryptoNote technology, Monero fixed some of Bytecoin’s issues like pre-mined coins that raised fairness concerns. The project quickly gained traction among cypherpunks who saw the need for true anonymity in digital money.
Core Concept of Monero
At its heart, Monero is built on the idea that privacy shouldn’t be optional—it’s essential. Unlike Bitcoin, where transactions are public on the blockchain, Monero uses tech like ring signatures to mix your transaction with others, making it impossible to pinpoint the real source. This creates a shield against analysis, ensuring your financial moves stay your business.
The Monero Ecosystem
The ecosystem is decentralize-or-bust. It includes mining pools for earning XMR, privacy-focused wallets, and even integrations with darknet markets (though that’s controversial). Community forums buzz with updates, and tools like Kovri (a privacy layer) are in the works to enhance network-level anonymity. It’s like a secret society, but open to anyone with a computer.
FAQs on Monero Basics
- Is Monero completely anonymous? Yes, by default—transactions are private, but remember, anonymity isn’t foolproof if you’re careless with IP addresses or exchanges.
- How does Monero differ from other privacy coins? It prioritizes default privacy without opt-ins, making it more user-friendly for beginners.
Who Created Monero (XMR)?
Monero’s origins are a bit shadowy, fitting for a privacy coin. It was launched on April 18, 2014, by a group of seven developers, most of whom remain pseudonymous to this day. The project stemmed from a fork of Bytecoin, initiated by a user known as “thankfulfortoday” on Bitcointalk forums, who aimed to create a more equitable and transparent version. Key figures include Riccardo “fluffypony” Spagni, a vocal advocate who led much of the early development and community outreach, though he’s since stepped back. Other contributors like “smooth” and “oen” played crucial roles in refining the code.
The whitepaper, based on the CryptoNote protocol by Nicolas van Saberhagen (a pseudonym), laid out the blueprint for ring signatures and stealth addresses. Historical milestones? In 2017, Monero adopted Bulletproofs for smaller, cheaper transactions. By 2018, it survived hard forks to combat ASIC mining dominance, preserving decentralization. Fast forward to 2025, and it’s weathered regulatory scrutiny, like the IRS’s 2020 bounty for tracing tools—yet it thrives. It’s like that underdog story where the scrappy team builds something unbreakable.
Founding Team and Proponents
While fluffypony’s charisma put Monero on the map, the real power is in its community-driven model. No single founder calls the shots; decisions come from consensus among developers and users. Proponents include privacy icons like Edward Snowden, who’s praised Monero for its effectiveness.
Project Origins and Whitepaper
Born from dissatisfaction with Bytecoin’s premine, Monero’s whitepaper emphasizes egalitarian mining and untraceable transactions. It’s not flashy—just a solid tech manifesto.
Historical Milestones
- 2014 Launch: Starts as BitMonero, quickly rebranded.
- 2016: Integrates RingCT for confidential transactions.
- 2020: Faces IRS crackdown but boosts adoption.
- 2025 Update: As of August 20, 2025, ongoing upgrades focus on scalability amid rising demand.
How Does Monero (XMR) Work?
Monero operates on a proof-of-work (PoW) blockchain, but with a privacy twist that sets it apart. At its core, it’s a distributed ledger where transactions are verified by miners solving complex puzzles. The consensus mechanism uses RandomX, an ASIC-resistant algorithm that favors CPU mining, keeping things accessible for everyday users. No fancy smart contracts here—Monero sticks to simple, secure transfers.
Picture this: You want to send XMR. Your wallet generates a one-time stealth address for the recipient, ensuring only they can access it. Ring signatures mix your transaction with decoys from the blockchain, like shuffling cards so no one knows your hand. Confidential transactions (via RingCT) hide the amounts. Public and private keys? You have view keys to check balances without revealing spends, adding layers of control. It’s efficient, with blocks every two minutes, and scalable enough for global use without congestion nightmares.
Blockchain and Consensus Mechanisms
Monero’s blockchain is a chain of blocks, each containing obfuscated transactions. PoW via RandomX ensures security—miners compete to add blocks, earning rewards. It’s energy-intensive but democratized.
Technical Principles: Private and Public Keys
Private keys sign transactions anonymously; public keys are never directly linked. Stealth addresses create unique destinations per transaction, breaking linkability.
Advanced Cryptography in Monero
Ring signatures, stealth addresses, and zero-knowledge proofs (Bulletproofs) form the trifecta. Ever wondered how to prove something without revealing it? That’s zero-knowledge in action, shrinking transaction sizes by 80%.
FAQs on Monero’s Mechanics
- Can Monero be traced? Not easily—advanced tools might try, but default privacy is robust.
- Is mining Monero profitable? Depends on electricity costs, but it’s more accessible than Bitcoin’s ASIC farms.
How Is New Monero (XMR) Created?
New XMR enters circulation through mining, where participants use computing power to solve cryptographic puzzles and validate transactions. There’s no hard cap like Bitcoin’s 21 million; Monero has a tail emission model, issuing a fixed 0.6 XMR per block indefinitely after the initial 18.4 million are mined (expected around 2022, but we’re past that now). This creates slight inflation to incentivize miners long-term, avoiding a “security cliff” when rewards dry up.
Mining involves joining a pool or going solo with a CPU/GPU—RandomX levels the playing field against big rigs. Rewards? About 0.6 XMR per block plus fees, distributed every two minutes. Staking isn’t a thing here; it’s pure PoW. Total supply sits at around 18.44 million as of 2025, with that tail keeping things flowing. It’s like a perpetual fountain, ensuring the network stays secure without relying on fees alone.
Issuance Method and Mining Mechanisms
Miners run software like XMRig, contributing hash power. Successful blocks add new XMR to the miner’s wallet.
Inflation Model and Total Supply Limit
No cap—inflation drops to under 1% annually, making it predictable. Tail emission starts post-main emission for sustained incentives.
Reward Mechanisms
Block rewards taper off, but fees from transactions supplement. It’s designed for longevity, not scarcity hype.
What Are the Use Cases of Monero (XMR)?
Monero shines where privacy matters most. Primary use? Anonymous payments—think buying goods without a trace, perfect for cross-border transfers dodging fees and oversight. It’s a value store too, like digital gold but untraceable. In DeFi, it’s niche but growing with privacy-focused protocols. NFTs? Rare, but possible on sidechains. Governance happens via community forks, not tokens.
Real-world? Activists in oppressive regimes use it for donations without fear. Businesses accept it for discreet transactions. Ever paid for coffee anonymously? Monero could make that digital. It’s not for smart contracts like Ethereum, but excels in censorship resistance.
Payments and Cross-Border Transfers
Fast, cheap, private—beats banks for international sends.
Value Storage and DeFi
Hodl XMR as a hedge; integrate with privacy DeFi apps.
NFTs, Governance, and More
Community votes on upgrades; NFTs are emerging but not core.
How Can You Buy, Send, or Store Monero (XMR)?
Getting started with Monero is straightforward, but privacy starts with secure habits. Buy on exchanges like WEEX, which offers spot trading and futures for XMR. Register on WEEX to snag a free 20 USDT bonus—it’s a trusted platform for crypto trading, with low fees and strong security. For OTC, peer-to-peer options exist, but stick to reputable ones.
https://www.weex.com/how-to-buy
Wallets? Hot ones like MyMonero for quick access; cold like Ledger for offline safety. To send: Enter the recipient’s address in your wallet, confirm, and boom—it’s private. Store securely with backups and two-factor auth. Avoid leaving coins on exchanges long-term.
Purchasing Channels
WEEX is great for beginners—sign up, deposit fiat, and trade XMR seamlessly.
Wallet Types and Storage Security
Hot wallets: Convenient but online risks. Cold: Safer, like a vault.
Common Operational Processes
Download a wallet, generate keys, buy via exchange, transfer, and verify.
FAQs on Buying and Storing
- Where to buy Monero safely? Trusted exchanges like WEEX—check their how-to-buy guide.
- Best wallet for Monero? Official CLI for pros; GUI for ease.
Pros & Cons / Risks
- Pros: Unmatched privacy protects against surveillance; decentralized and resistant to censorship; efficient transactions with low fees; community-driven updates ensure relevance; fungible nature makes it ideal for real spending.
- Cons/Risks: High volatility can lead to sudden price drops; regulatory crackdowns in some countries ban privacy coins; mining energy use raises environmental concerns; potential for illicit use tarnishes reputation; technical complexity for newbies.
Comparison
Monero vs. Bitcoin: BTC is transparent gold; XMR is private cash. Ethereum offers smart contracts, but lacks default anonymity—Monero fills that gap without the bloat. Zcash provides optional privacy, but Monero’s always-on approach wins for purists. It’s positioned as the privacy king in a sea of traceable tokens.
Market & Ecosystem
As of August 20, 2025, Monero’s market cap stands at $5,839,553,886 USD, with a 24-hour trading volume of $111,735,501 USD. It’s ranked #24 on CoinMarketCap, reflecting steady demand amid privacy trends.
Market Cap & Trading Volume
Current price: $316.56 USD, down 0.03% in 24 hours. Volume indicates healthy liquidity without wild swings.
Exchanges Where It’s Listed
Available on major platforms like Binance, Kraken, and WEEX for easy trading.
Community Size & Activity
Thriving on Twitter (hundreds of thousands of followers), Reddit (r/Monero with active discussions), and Telegram groups. It’s a passionate crowd sharing tips and updates.
Ecosystem Growth: Partnerships and Developer Activity
Partnerships with privacy tools and wallets drive growth. Developer activity is high, with regular GitHub commits for upgrades like better scalability.
What’s the Latest News of Monero?
Monero Price Today, XMR to USD Live Price, Marketcap and Chart
Monero’s current statistics and markets are detailed, including news and community insights. Investors may value Monero for its privacy demand potential, alongside its use as a medium of exchange.
Home | Monero
What is Monero? Community – [x]
Monero Price: XMR Live Price Chart, Market Cap & News Today
The price of Monero (XMR) is calculated in real-time across exchanges, with a market capitalization of $5,877,475,378 and ranked #30. XMR tokens can be traded on centralized crypto exchanges.
Monero Price, XMR Price, Live Charts, and Marketcap
Monero’s market cap is $4.98B, determined by its price of $270.33 and total supply of 18,446,744 XMR. Leading privacy-focused cryptocurrency Monero has outperformed Bitcoin this year, with trends likely to continue.
Monero
In September 2020, the United States Internal Revenue Service’s criminal investigation division posted a $625,000 bounty for tools to trace Monero and other privacy-enhanced cryptocurrencies. Proof of work currencies include SHA-256-based ones like Bitcoin, but Monero stands out.
Conclusion / Next Steps
Monero’s future looks promising as global privacy concerns ramp up—think data breaches and surveillance states pushing more users its way. Development might focus on better integration with Web3 while maintaining core anonymity. Dive deeper by checking the official whitepaper on getmonero.org or joining Reddit discussions for real talk. If you’re ready to dip in, explore WEEX for trading—it’s a solid start. Remember, crypto’s wild; research thoroughly before jumping. What’s your take on privacy in finance?
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Debunking the AI Doomsday Myth: Why Establishment Inertia and the Software Wasteland Will Save Us
Editor's Note: Citrini7's cyberpunk-themed AI doomsday prophecy has sparked widespread discussion across the internet. However, this article presents a more pragmatic counter perspective. If Citrini envisions a digital tsunami instantly engulfing civilization, this author sees the resilient resistance of the human bureaucratic system, the profoundly flawed existing software ecosystem, and the long-overlooked cornerstone of heavy industry. This is a frontal clash between Silicon Valley fantasy and the iron law of reality, reminding us that the singularity may come, but it will never happen overnight.
The following is the original content:
Renowned market commentator Citrini7 recently published a captivating and widely circulated AI doomsday novel. While he acknowledges that the probability of some scenes occurring is extremely low, as someone who has witnessed multiple economic collapse prophecies, I want to challenge his views and present a more deterministic and optimistic future.
In 2007, people thought that against the backdrop of "peak oil," the United States' geopolitical status had come to an end; in 2008, they believed the dollar system was on the brink of collapse; in 2014, everyone thought AMD and NVIDIA were done for. Then ChatGPT emerged, and people thought Google was toast... Yet every time, existing institutions with deep-rooted inertia have proven to be far more resilient than onlookers imagined.
When Citrini talks about the fear of institutional turnover and rapid workforce displacement, he writes, "Even in fields we think rely on interpersonal relationships, cracks are showing. Take the real estate industry, where buyers have tolerated 5%-6% commissions for decades due to the information asymmetry between brokers and consumers..."
Seeing this, I couldn't help but chuckle. People have been proclaiming the "death of real estate agents" for 20 years now! This hardly requires any superintelligence; with Zillow, Redfin, or Opendoor, it's enough. But this example precisely proves the opposite of Citrini's view: although this workforce has long been deemed obsolete in the eyes of most, due to market inertia and regulatory capture, real estate agents' vitality is more tenacious than anyone's expectations a decade ago.
A few months ago, I just bought a house. The transaction process mandated that we hire a real estate agent, with lofty justifications. My buyer's agent made about $50,000 in this transaction, while his actual work — filling out forms and coordinating between multiple parties — amounted to no more than 10 hours, something I could have easily handled myself. The market will eventually move towards efficiency, providing fair pricing for labor, but this will be a long process.
I deeply understand the ways of inertia and change management: I once founded and sold a company whose core business was driving insurance brokerages from "manual service" to "software-driven." The iron rule I learned is: human societies in the real world are extremely complex, and things always take longer than you imagine — even when you account for this rule. This doesn't mean that the world won't undergo drastic changes, but rather that change will be more gradual, allowing us time to respond and adapt.
Recently, the software sector has seen a downturn as investors worry about the lack of moats in the backend systems of companies like Monday, Salesforce, Asana, making them easily replicable. Citrini and others believe that AI programming heralds the end of SaaS companies: one, products become homogenized, with zero profits, and two, jobs disappear.
But everyone overlooks one thing: the current state of these software products is simply terrible.
I'm qualified to say this because I've spent hundreds of thousands of dollars on Salesforce and Monday. Indeed, AI can enable competitors to replicate these products, but more importantly, AI can enable competitors to build better products. Stock price declines are not surprising: an industry relying on long-term lock-ins, lacking competitiveness, and filled with low-quality legacy incumbents is finally facing competition again.
From a broader perspective, almost all existing software is garbage, which is an undeniable fact. Every tool I've paid for is riddled with bugs; some software is so bad that I can't even pay for it (I've been unable to use Citibank's online transfer for the past three years); most web apps can't even get mobile and desktop responsiveness right; not a single product can fully deliver what you want. Silicon Valley darlings like Stripe and Linear only garner massive followings because they are not as disgustingly unusable as their competitors. If you ask a seasoned engineer, "Show me a truly perfect piece of software," all you'll get is prolonged silence and blank stares.
Here lies a profound truth: even as we approach a "software singularity," the human demand for software labor is nearly infinite. It's well known that the final few percentage points of perfection often require the most work. By this standard, almost every software product has at least a 100x improvement in complexity and features before reaching demand saturation.
I believe that most commentators who claim that the software industry is on the brink of extinction lack an intuitive understanding of software development. The software industry has been around for 50 years, and despite tremendous progress, it is always in a state of "not enough." As a programmer in 2020, my productivity matches that of hundreds of people in 1970, which is incredibly impressive leverage. However, there is still significant room for improvement. People underestimate the "Jevons Paradox": Efficiency improvements often lead to explosive growth in overall demand.
This does not mean that software engineering is an invincible job, but the industry's ability to absorb labor and its inertia far exceed imagination. The saturation process will be very slow, giving us enough time to adapt.
Of course, labor reallocation is inevitable, such as in the driving sector. As Citrini pointed out, many white-collar jobs will experience disruptions. For positions like real estate brokers that have long lost tangible value and rely solely on momentum for income, AI may be the final straw.
But our lifesaver lies in the fact that the United States has almost infinite potential and demand for reindustrialization. You may have heard of "reshoring," but it goes far beyond that. We have essentially lost the ability to manufacture the core building blocks of modern life: batteries, motors, small-scale semiconductors—the entire electricity supply chain is almost entirely dependent on overseas sources. What if there is a military conflict? What's even worse, did you know that China produces 90% of the world's synthetic ammonia? Once the supply is cut off, we can't even produce fertilizer and will face famine.
As long as you look to the physical world, you will find endless job opportunities that will benefit the country, create employment, and build essential infrastructure, all of which can receive bipartisan political support.
We have seen the economic and political winds shifting in this direction—discussions on reshoring, deep tech, and "American vitality." My prediction is that when AI impacts the white-collar sector, the path of least political resistance will be to fund large-scale reindustrialization, absorbing labor through a "giant employment project." Fortunately, the physical world does not have a "singularity"; it is constrained by friction.
We will rebuild bridges and roads. People will find that seeing tangible labor results is more fulfilling than spinning in the digital abstract world. The Salesforce senior product manager who lost a $180,000 salary may find a new job at the "California Seawater Desalination Plant" to end the 25-year drought. These facilities not only need to be built but also pursued with excellence and require long-term maintenance. As long as we are willing, the "Jevons Paradox" also applies to the physical world.
The goal of large-scale industrial engineering is abundance. The United States will once again achieve self-sufficiency, enabling large-scale, low-cost production. Moving beyond material scarcity is crucial: in the long run, if we do indeed lose a significant portion of white-collar jobs to AI, we must be able to maintain a high quality of life for the public. And as AI drives profit margins to zero, consumer goods will become extremely affordable, automatically fulfilling this objective.
My view is that different sectors of the economy will "take off" at different speeds, and the transformation in almost all areas will be slower than Citrini anticipates. To be clear, I am extremely bullish on AI and foresee a day when my own labor will be obsolete. But this will take time, and time gives us the opportunity to devise sound strategies.
At this point, preventing the kind of market collapse Citrini imagines is actually not difficult. The U.S. government's performance during the pandemic has demonstrated its proactive and decisive crisis response. If necessary, massive stimulus policies will quickly intervene. Although I am somewhat displeased by its inefficiency, that is not the focus. The focus is on safeguarding material prosperity in people's lives—a universal well-being that gives legitimacy to a nation and upholds the social contract, rather than stubbornly adhering to past accounting metrics or economic dogma.
If we can maintain sharpness and responsiveness in this slow but sure technological transformation, we will eventually emerge unscathed.
Source: Original Post Link

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Debunking the AI Doomsday Myth: Why Establishment Inertia and the Software Wasteland Will Save Us
Editor's Note: Citrini7's cyberpunk-themed AI doomsday prophecy has sparked widespread discussion across the internet. However, this article presents a more pragmatic counter perspective. If Citrini envisions a digital tsunami instantly engulfing civilization, this author sees the resilient resistance of the human bureaucratic system, the profoundly flawed existing software ecosystem, and the long-overlooked cornerstone of heavy industry. This is a frontal clash between Silicon Valley fantasy and the iron law of reality, reminding us that the singularity may come, but it will never happen overnight.
The following is the original content:
Renowned market commentator Citrini7 recently published a captivating and widely circulated AI doomsday novel. While he acknowledges that the probability of some scenes occurring is extremely low, as someone who has witnessed multiple economic collapse prophecies, I want to challenge his views and present a more deterministic and optimistic future.
In 2007, people thought that against the backdrop of "peak oil," the United States' geopolitical status had come to an end; in 2008, they believed the dollar system was on the brink of collapse; in 2014, everyone thought AMD and NVIDIA were done for. Then ChatGPT emerged, and people thought Google was toast... Yet every time, existing institutions with deep-rooted inertia have proven to be far more resilient than onlookers imagined.
When Citrini talks about the fear of institutional turnover and rapid workforce displacement, he writes, "Even in fields we think rely on interpersonal relationships, cracks are showing. Take the real estate industry, where buyers have tolerated 5%-6% commissions for decades due to the information asymmetry between brokers and consumers..."
Seeing this, I couldn't help but chuckle. People have been proclaiming the "death of real estate agents" for 20 years now! This hardly requires any superintelligence; with Zillow, Redfin, or Opendoor, it's enough. But this example precisely proves the opposite of Citrini's view: although this workforce has long been deemed obsolete in the eyes of most, due to market inertia and regulatory capture, real estate agents' vitality is more tenacious than anyone's expectations a decade ago.
A few months ago, I just bought a house. The transaction process mandated that we hire a real estate agent, with lofty justifications. My buyer's agent made about $50,000 in this transaction, while his actual work — filling out forms and coordinating between multiple parties — amounted to no more than 10 hours, something I could have easily handled myself. The market will eventually move towards efficiency, providing fair pricing for labor, but this will be a long process.
I deeply understand the ways of inertia and change management: I once founded and sold a company whose core business was driving insurance brokerages from "manual service" to "software-driven." The iron rule I learned is: human societies in the real world are extremely complex, and things always take longer than you imagine — even when you account for this rule. This doesn't mean that the world won't undergo drastic changes, but rather that change will be more gradual, allowing us time to respond and adapt.
Recently, the software sector has seen a downturn as investors worry about the lack of moats in the backend systems of companies like Monday, Salesforce, Asana, making them easily replicable. Citrini and others believe that AI programming heralds the end of SaaS companies: one, products become homogenized, with zero profits, and two, jobs disappear.
But everyone overlooks one thing: the current state of these software products is simply terrible.
I'm qualified to say this because I've spent hundreds of thousands of dollars on Salesforce and Monday. Indeed, AI can enable competitors to replicate these products, but more importantly, AI can enable competitors to build better products. Stock price declines are not surprising: an industry relying on long-term lock-ins, lacking competitiveness, and filled with low-quality legacy incumbents is finally facing competition again.
From a broader perspective, almost all existing software is garbage, which is an undeniable fact. Every tool I've paid for is riddled with bugs; some software is so bad that I can't even pay for it (I've been unable to use Citibank's online transfer for the past three years); most web apps can't even get mobile and desktop responsiveness right; not a single product can fully deliver what you want. Silicon Valley darlings like Stripe and Linear only garner massive followings because they are not as disgustingly unusable as their competitors. If you ask a seasoned engineer, "Show me a truly perfect piece of software," all you'll get is prolonged silence and blank stares.
Here lies a profound truth: even as we approach a "software singularity," the human demand for software labor is nearly infinite. It's well known that the final few percentage points of perfection often require the most work. By this standard, almost every software product has at least a 100x improvement in complexity and features before reaching demand saturation.
I believe that most commentators who claim that the software industry is on the brink of extinction lack an intuitive understanding of software development. The software industry has been around for 50 years, and despite tremendous progress, it is always in a state of "not enough." As a programmer in 2020, my productivity matches that of hundreds of people in 1970, which is incredibly impressive leverage. However, there is still significant room for improvement. People underestimate the "Jevons Paradox": Efficiency improvements often lead to explosive growth in overall demand.
This does not mean that software engineering is an invincible job, but the industry's ability to absorb labor and its inertia far exceed imagination. The saturation process will be very slow, giving us enough time to adapt.
Of course, labor reallocation is inevitable, such as in the driving sector. As Citrini pointed out, many white-collar jobs will experience disruptions. For positions like real estate brokers that have long lost tangible value and rely solely on momentum for income, AI may be the final straw.
But our lifesaver lies in the fact that the United States has almost infinite potential and demand for reindustrialization. You may have heard of "reshoring," but it goes far beyond that. We have essentially lost the ability to manufacture the core building blocks of modern life: batteries, motors, small-scale semiconductors—the entire electricity supply chain is almost entirely dependent on overseas sources. What if there is a military conflict? What's even worse, did you know that China produces 90% of the world's synthetic ammonia? Once the supply is cut off, we can't even produce fertilizer and will face famine.
As long as you look to the physical world, you will find endless job opportunities that will benefit the country, create employment, and build essential infrastructure, all of which can receive bipartisan political support.
We have seen the economic and political winds shifting in this direction—discussions on reshoring, deep tech, and "American vitality." My prediction is that when AI impacts the white-collar sector, the path of least political resistance will be to fund large-scale reindustrialization, absorbing labor through a "giant employment project." Fortunately, the physical world does not have a "singularity"; it is constrained by friction.
We will rebuild bridges and roads. People will find that seeing tangible labor results is more fulfilling than spinning in the digital abstract world. The Salesforce senior product manager who lost a $180,000 salary may find a new job at the "California Seawater Desalination Plant" to end the 25-year drought. These facilities not only need to be built but also pursued with excellence and require long-term maintenance. As long as we are willing, the "Jevons Paradox" also applies to the physical world.
The goal of large-scale industrial engineering is abundance. The United States will once again achieve self-sufficiency, enabling large-scale, low-cost production. Moving beyond material scarcity is crucial: in the long run, if we do indeed lose a significant portion of white-collar jobs to AI, we must be able to maintain a high quality of life for the public. And as AI drives profit margins to zero, consumer goods will become extremely affordable, automatically fulfilling this objective.
My view is that different sectors of the economy will "take off" at different speeds, and the transformation in almost all areas will be slower than Citrini anticipates. To be clear, I am extremely bullish on AI and foresee a day when my own labor will be obsolete. But this will take time, and time gives us the opportunity to devise sound strategies.
At this point, preventing the kind of market collapse Citrini imagines is actually not difficult. The U.S. government's performance during the pandemic has demonstrated its proactive and decisive crisis response. If necessary, massive stimulus policies will quickly intervene. Although I am somewhat displeased by its inefficiency, that is not the focus. The focus is on safeguarding material prosperity in people's lives—a universal well-being that gives legitimacy to a nation and upholds the social contract, rather than stubbornly adhering to past accounting metrics or economic dogma.
If we can maintain sharpness and responsiveness in this slow but sure technological transformation, we will eventually emerge unscathed.
Source: Original Post Link